{"id":6603,"date":"2026-06-14T14:52:18","date_gmt":"2026-06-14T12:52:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.realestate.it\/?p=6603"},"modified":"2026-06-14T15:44:19","modified_gmt":"2026-06-14T13:44:19","slug":"osservatorio-edition-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.realestate.it\/en\/osservatorio-edition-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Osservatorio \u00b7 Edition #1 \u00b7 EN \u00b7 14 June 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.it\/en\/osservatorio-edition-1\/#Italys_housing_market_enters_2026_accelerating_more_deals_rising_prices_credit_back_in_play\" >Italy&#8217;s housing market enters 2026 accelerating: more deals, rising prices, credit back in play<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.it\/en\/osservatorio-edition-1\/#DATA_%E2%80%94_Home_sales_up_44_in_Q1_2026_Italy\" >DATA \u2014 Home sales up 4.4% in Q1 2026 (Italy)<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.it\/en\/osservatorio-edition-1\/#DATA_%E2%80%94_House_prices_40_across_2025_existing_stock_leading_Italy\" >DATA \u2014 House prices +4.0% across 2025, existing stock leading (Italy)<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.it\/en\/osservatorio-edition-1\/#MARKET_SIGNAL_%E2%80%94_Price_expectations_turn_positive_discounts_narrow_Italy\" >MARKET SIGNAL \u2014 Price expectations turn positive, discounts narrow (Italy)<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.it\/en\/osservatorio-edition-1\/#REGULATION_%E2%80%94_Short_lets_tighter_tax_and_enforcement_from_1_January_2026_Italy\" >REGULATION \u2014 Short lets: tighter tax and enforcement from 1 January 2026 (Italy)<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.it\/en\/osservatorio-edition-1\/#LISTED_RE_%E2%80%94_Italys_listed-property_universe_shrinks_tender_offers_and_delistings_Milan\" >LISTED RE \u2014 Italy&#8217;s listed-property universe shrinks: tender offers and delistings (Milan)<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.it\/en\/osservatorio-edition-1\/#MARKET_SIGNAL_%E2%80%94_Milan_asking_prices_above_E5000m%C2%B2_but_mind_%E2%80%9Casking_vs_transacted%E2%80%9D_Milan\" >MARKET SIGNAL \u2014 Milan: asking prices above \u20ac5,000\/m\u00b2, but mind &#8220;asking vs. transacted&#8221; (Milan)<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Italys_housing_market_enters_2026_accelerating_more_deals_rising_prices_credit_back_in_play\"><\/span>Italy&#8217;s housing market enters 2026 accelerating: more deals, rising prices, credit back in play<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What matters today:<\/strong> Official first-quarter 2026 data confirms an expanding market \u2014 more transactions, rising prices, and mortgages back at the centre \u2014 while a new short-let tax regime and consolidation among listed property companies reshape where and how yield is made.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"DATA_%E2%80%94_Home_sales_up_44_in_Q1_2026_Italy\"><\/span>DATA \u2014 Home sales up 4.4% in Q1 2026 (Italy)<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Residential transactions rose <strong>+4.4% year-on-year in Q1 2026, with nearly 180,000 homes<\/strong> changing hands, the strongest gains in the North-West and South (<strong>+5.1%<\/strong>) (Agenzia delle Entrate\u2013OMI, quarterly transaction statistics, Q1 2026, press release of 10 June 2026). OMI is the observatory of the Italian Revenue Agency that publishes <strong>transacted<\/strong> (deed-recorded) data \u2014 the truth-check for what actually sells. Mortgage-backed purchases reached <strong>47.8%<\/strong> of deals, with over <strong>\u20ac11 billion<\/strong> financed; first-home tax relief (&#8220;prima casa&#8221;) featured in nearly <strong>73%<\/strong> of purchases. The non-residential segment grew <strong>+1.8%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>So what:<\/em> the recovery is broad and credit-supported \u2014 a sign of structural demand rather than a local spike. For investors, transacted volumes (not asking-price chatter) are the cleanest read on market liquidity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"DATA_%E2%80%94_House_prices_40_across_2025_existing_stock_leading_Italy\"><\/span>DATA \u2014 House prices +4.0% across 2025, existing stock leading (Italy)<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Across 2025 the house-price index rose <strong>+4.0%<\/strong>, with <strong>existing dwellings at +4.7%<\/strong> versus <strong>new builds at +0.6%<\/strong>; Q4 2025 was +0.9% quarter-on-quarter and <strong>+4.1% year-on-year<\/strong> (ISTAT, House Price Index\u2013IPAB, Q4 2025, released March 2026). The statistical carry-over into 2026 is estimated at <strong>+1.6%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>So what:<\/em> the gains are concentrated in the existing stock, not new development \u2014 the dynamics reward value-add and renovation strategies over ground-up product.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"MARKET_SIGNAL_%E2%80%94_Price_expectations_turn_positive_discounts_narrow_Italy\"><\/span>MARKET SIGNAL \u2014 Price expectations turn positive, discounts narrow (Italy)<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the early-2026 sentiment survey, <strong>estate agents&#8217; sale-price expectations turned positive (balance +2.6%)<\/strong>, with time-on-market near record lows and the <strong>average discount to the asking price shrinking<\/strong> \u2014 especially tight in the <strong>North-East (about 5 points)<\/strong> (Banca d&#8217;Italia, <em>Quarterly Survey of the Italian Housing Market<\/em>, run with Tecnoborsa and Agenzia delle Entrate\u2013OMI, Q1 2026). In the agent sample, the mortgage-financed share is around <strong>65%<\/strong>, with loan-to-value near <strong>77%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>So what:<\/em> a narrowing discount shifts bargaining power to sellers \u2014 buyers have less room, particularly in the North-East. A methodology note for newcomers: the survey&#8217;s 65% (agent sample) and OMI&#8217;s 47.8% (notarised deeds) measure different things; read them together, never as the same number.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"REGULATION_%E2%80%94_Short_lets_tighter_tax_and_enforcement_from_1_January_2026_Italy\"><\/span>REGULATION \u2014 Short lets: tighter tax and enforcement from 1 January 2026 (Italy)<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Italy&#8217;s 2026 Budget Law (Law no. 199 of 30 December 2025, published in the <em>Gazzetta Ufficiale<\/em> \u2014 the official legal gazette \u2014 no. 301 of 30 December 2025, effective 1 January 2026) tightens the short-let regime. It <strong>lowers the &#8220;business activity&#8221; threshold to three or more apartments<\/strong> let short-term (triggering a VAT registration obligation), confirms the mandatory <strong>CIN<\/strong> \u2014 <em>Codice Identificativo Nazionale<\/em>, the national identification code every short-let unit must display \u2014 and restructures the <strong>cedolare secca<\/strong>, the flat-rate tax option on rental income. <em>(Exact cedolare rate bands should be confirmed against the law text before being cited as final; we report the framework, not the individual rates.)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>So what:<\/em> the three-property threshold pushes small multi-listing hosts into the business\/VAT regime, compressing net short-let yield \u2014 the single biggest regulatory variable for the short-let model right now. Background on the <em>CIN<\/em> and Italian buying mechanics is in our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.it\/en\/buying-guide\/\">buying guide<\/a>, and key terms are defined in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.it\/glossario-immobiliare\/\">glossary<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"LISTED_RE_%E2%80%94_Italys_listed-property_universe_shrinks_tender_offers_and_delistings_Milan\"><\/span>LISTED RE \u2014 Italy&#8217;s listed-property universe shrinks: tender offers and delistings (Milan)<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Consolidation among listed property companies continues. <strong>CPI Property Group has passed 98.7% of Next RE SIIQ<\/strong> following a tender offer launched on 20 April 2026 and is heading toward a <strong>delisting<\/strong> (source: BeBeez\/MonitorImmobiliare, April\u2013May 2026); separately, <strong>Qatar Investment Authority is reported to hold \u224898.27% of COIMA RES<\/strong> after its tender (source: MonitorImmobiliare). A <strong>SIIQ<\/strong> is Italy&#8217;s listed real-estate investment vehicle, the local equivalent of a REIT. <em>(Tender-offer situations: confirm final stakes against company filings.)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>So what:<\/em> foreign institutional capital is taking Italian property private \u2014 fewer listed vehicles for retail exposure, and a signal of the value overseas operators see in the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"MARKET_SIGNAL_%E2%80%94_Milan_asking_prices_above_E5000m%C2%B2_but_mind_%E2%80%9Casking_vs_transacted%E2%80%9D_Milan\"><\/span>MARKET SIGNAL \u2014 Milan: asking prices above \u20ac5,000\/m\u00b2, but mind &#8220;asking vs. transacted&#8221; (Milan)<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In early 2026 the average <strong>asking<\/strong> price in Milan sits around <strong>\u20ac5,200\/m\u00b2<\/strong> (portal\/asking data, February 2026, casedacasa.it), with central districts (Brera, Quadrilatero, Duomo) between <strong>\u20ac8,000 and \u20ac12,000\/m\u00b2<\/strong>; official <strong>OMI<\/strong> quotations (transacted, updated half-yearly) range roughly <strong>\u20ac1,885 to \u20ac12,535\/m\u00b2<\/strong> by zone (Agenzia delle Entrate\u2013OMI, property quotations). Il Sole 24 Ore reports a citywide average nearing <strong>\u20ac6,000\/m\u00b2<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>So what:<\/em> portal asking prices systematically overstate the market and ignore what fails to sell; in Milan, always sanity-check against transacted OMI data (half-yearly, so it lags) before making an offer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sources &amp; dates<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Agenzia delle Entrate\u2013OMI<\/strong>, quarterly transaction statistics, Q1 2026 \u2014 press release of 10 June 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>ISTAT<\/strong>, House Price Index (IPAB), Q4 2025 and 2025 annual average \u2014 released March 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Banca d&#8217;Italia<\/strong>, <em>Quarterly Survey of the Italian Housing Market<\/em> (with Tecnoborsa and Agenzia delle Entrate\u2013OMI), Q1 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Gazzetta Ufficiale<\/strong> no. 301 of 30 December 2025 \u2014 Law no. 199 of 30 December 2025 (2026 Budget Law), effective 1 January 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>BeBeez \/ MonitorImmobiliare<\/strong> (trade press, April\u2013May 2026) \u2014 Next RE SIIQ tender offer (CPI Property Group) and COIMA RES (Qatar Investment Authority).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Agenzia delle Entrate\u2013OMI<\/strong>, Milan property quotations (half-yearly); <strong>casedacasa.it<\/strong> (asking prices, February 2026, portal data); <strong>Il Sole 24 Ore<\/strong> (Milan citywide average).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>This is a newsletter, not personalised financial, legal or tax advice. For your situation, consult a qualified professional (commercialista, notaio, or avvocato). Ecosystem tools: VALE.IT (valuations), STACK.RE (data\/APIs).<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Italy&#8217;s housing market enters 2026 accelerating: more deals, rising prices, credit back in play What matters today: Official first-quarter 2026 data confirms an expanding market \u2014 more transactions, rising prices, and mortgages back at the centre \u2014 while a new short-let tax regime and consolidation among listed property companies reshape where and how yield is &#8230; <a title=\"Osservatorio \u00b7 Edition #1 \u00b7 EN \u00b7 14 June 2026\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.it\/en\/osservatorio-edition-1\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Osservatorio \u00b7 Edition #1 \u00b7 EN \u00b7 14 June 2026\">Read more&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":6598,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_import_markdown_pro_load_document_selector":0,"_import_markdown_pro_submit_text_textarea":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[261],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6603","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-osservatorio","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Osservatorio \u00b7 Edition #1 \u00b7 EN \u00b7 14 June 2026 &#8226; Real Estate<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.it\/en\/osservatorio-edition-1\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Osservatorio \u00b7 Edition #1 \u00b7 EN \u00b7 14 June 2026 &#8226; Real Estate\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Italy&#8217;s housing market enters 2026 accelerating: more deals, rising prices, credit back in play What matters today: Official first-quarter 2026 data confirms an expanding market \u2014 more transactions, rising prices, and mortgages back at the centre \u2014 while a new short-let tax regime and consolidation among listed property companies reshape where and how yield is ... 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