{"id":6640,"date":"2026-06-17T09:27:26","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T07:27:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.realestate.it\/?p=6640"},"modified":"2026-06-17T09:30:34","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T07:30:34","slug":"osservatorio-edition-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.realestate.it\/en\/osservatorio-edition-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Osservatorio \u00b7 Edition #2 \u00b7 EN \u00b7 17 June 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.it\/en\/osservatorio-edition-2\/#From_price_gains_to_the_hunt_for_yield_Italys_cycle_matures\" >From price gains to the hunt for yield: Italy&#8217;s cycle matures<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.it\/en\/osservatorio-edition-2\/#DATA_%E2%80%94_2025_closed_at_the_highs_of_the_recent_cycle_nearly_767000_homes_64_Italy\" >DATA \u2014 2025 closed at the highs of the recent cycle: nearly 767,000 homes, +6.4% (Italy)<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.it\/en\/osservatorio-edition-2\/#DATA_%E2%80%94_Q1_2026_demand_confirmed_44_but_uneven_geographies_Italy\" >DATA \u2014 Q1 2026: demand confirmed, +4.4%, but uneven geographies (Italy)<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.it\/en\/osservatorio-edition-2\/#DATA_%E2%80%94_Mortgage_cost_still_below_4_but_the_ECB_raised_rates_on_11_June_Italy\" >DATA \u2014 Mortgage cost still below 4%, but the ECB raised rates on 11 June (Italy)<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.it\/en\/osservatorio-edition-2\/#MARKET_SIGNAL_%E2%80%94_Yields_where_income_actually_sits_Italy\" >MARKET SIGNAL \u2014 Yields: where income actually sits (Italy)<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.it\/en\/osservatorio-edition-2\/#COMMERCIAL_RE_%E2%80%94_Q1_2026_CRE_at_E23bn_capital_rotates_toward_income_Italy\" >COMMERCIAL RE \u2014 Q1 2026 CRE at \u20ac2.3bn; capital rotates toward income (Italy)<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.it\/en\/osservatorio-edition-2\/#REGULATION_%E2%80%94_Short_lets_the_two-property_perimeter_Italy\" >REGULATION \u2014 Short lets: the two-property perimeter (Italy)<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"From_price_gains_to_the_hunt_for_yield_Italys_cycle_matures\"><\/span>From price gains to the hunt for yield: Italy&#8217;s cycle matures<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What matters today:<\/strong> 2025 closed with nearly <strong>767,000 homes sold<\/strong> and a marked rebound in mortgage-financed purchases; Q1 2026 confirms demand, but with very different geographies. Mortgage credit was still priced below 4% in the April data, yet the ECB&#8217;s 11 June decision puts rate risk back at the centre. In this maturing phase, investors must shift focus from capital gains alone to <strong>net income<\/strong>: rents, taxation, vacancy, running costs, and choice of city.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"DATA_%E2%80%94_2025_closed_at_the_highs_of_the_recent_cycle_nearly_767000_homes_64_Italy\"><\/span>DATA \u2014 2025 closed at the highs of the recent cycle: nearly 767,000 homes, +6.4% (Italy)<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The annual residential report from <strong>OMI<\/strong> (Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare, the property-market observatory inside Agenzia delle Entrate, Italy&#8217;s Revenue Agency) shows a very strong 2025: about <strong>767,000 residential transactions, +6.4%<\/strong> on 2024, with residential turnover at about <strong>\u20ac124 billion<\/strong> and stronger use of mortgage credit: purchases by individuals backed by a mortgage reached <strong>45.9%<\/strong> of transactions, with <strong>\u20ac47.2 billion<\/strong> of mortgage capital disbursed (<strong>+25%<\/strong> on 2024); mortgage-financed transactions rose <strong>+18.3%<\/strong> (Agenzia delle Entrate\u2013OMI, annual residential report, press release of 21 May 2026, 2025 data). These are <strong>transacted<\/strong> (deed-recorded) full-year figures \u2014 sturdier than quarterly prints; &#8220;record&#8221; in an absolute historical sense should be used with care.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>So what:<\/em> 2025 sets a high, increasingly credit-funded base \u2014 the reference point against which any 2026 cooling should be read.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"DATA_%E2%80%94_Q1_2026_demand_confirmed_44_but_uneven_geographies_Italy\"><\/span>DATA \u2014 Q1 2026: demand confirmed, +4.4%, but uneven geographies (Italy)<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The first quarter of 2026 confirms the momentum: nearly <strong>180,000 residential transactions, +4.4%<\/strong> year-on-year, with the <strong>North-West and South<\/strong> the most dynamic areas (both <strong>+5.1%<\/strong>) and, among big cities, strength in <strong>Turin, Genoa, Milan, Palermo, Naples and Rome<\/strong> (Rome <strong>+5.1%<\/strong>) (Agenzia delle Entrate\u2013OMI, quarterly statistics Q1 2026, press release of 10 June 2026). These are <strong>transacted<\/strong> volumes; portal <strong>asking<\/strong> prices are a different, typically inflated, gauge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>So what:<\/em> Italy is not one market \u2014 city-level granularity beats the national average when allocating capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"DATA_%E2%80%94_Mortgage_cost_still_below_4_but_the_ECB_raised_rates_on_11_June_Italy\"><\/span>DATA \u2014 Mortgage cost still below 4%, but the ECB raised rates on 11 June (Italy)<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In April 2026 the average APRC on new home-purchase mortgages stood at <strong>3.91%<\/strong>, up slightly from <strong>3.81%<\/strong> in March, while household loans grew <strong>+2.6%<\/strong> year-on-year (Banca d&#8217;Italia, <em>Money and Banking: national series<\/em>, April 2026 data). On <strong>11 June 2026 the ECB raised its key rates by 25 basis points<\/strong>, effective <strong>17 June<\/strong>: deposit facility <strong>2.25%<\/strong>, main refinancing <strong>2.40%<\/strong>, marginal lending <strong>2.65%<\/strong> (ECB, monetary policy decisions, 11 June 2026); 12-month Euribor, <strong>2.842% at the 5 June fixing<\/strong>, rose to <strong>2.874% by 12 June<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>So what:<\/em> leverage stays accessible but is no longer in a phase of linear decline \u2014 rate risk has just changed sign and must be priced into underwriting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"MARKET_SIGNAL_%E2%80%94_Yields_where_income_actually_sits_Italy\"><\/span>MARKET SIGNAL \u2014 Yields: where income actually sits (Italy)<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Two sources, not to be conflated. Per <strong>Nomisma<\/strong> (1st 2026 observatory), residential rents rose <strong>+3.4%<\/strong> in 2025, with a <strong>gross rental yield of 5.7%<\/strong> and a <strong>total gross annual return of 8.4%<\/strong> once price growth is included; average time-to-let fell to <strong>1.6 months<\/strong>. Separately, the <strong>Tecnocasa research office<\/strong> reports, on first-half 2025 data published in 2026, that for long-term, non-seasonal lettings a ~65 m\u00b2 two-room flat in big cities yields on average about <strong>5.8% gross<\/strong>, with <strong>Genoa leading at 7.5%<\/strong> (then Palermo 7.1%, Verona 6.6%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>So what:<\/em> yield lives in the price-to-rent ratio, not in a city&#8217;s prestige \u2014 and these are <strong>gross<\/strong> figures: deduct IMU (the municipal property tax), management, vacancy and income tax to reach net. Tax matters: rental income can be taxed under <em>cedolare secca<\/em>, a flat-rate option, instead of progressive rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"COMMERCIAL_RE_%E2%80%94_Q1_2026_CRE_at_E23bn_capital_rotates_toward_income_Italy\"><\/span>COMMERCIAL RE \u2014 Q1 2026 CRE at \u20ac2.3bn; capital rotates toward income (Italy)<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Per <strong>CBRE<\/strong>, Q1 2026 commercial real-estate (CRE) investment was about <strong>\u20ac2.3 billion, \u221221%<\/strong> year-on-year (2025 had been a <strong>record<\/strong> year near \u20ac13.5 billion), but on a positive 12-month trajectory; <strong>retail led with \u20ac687 million<\/strong>, followed by <strong>hotels at \u20ac522 million<\/strong> (CBRE, Commercial Real Estate Italy Q1 2026 release, April 2026). In CBRE&#8217;s survey of 200+ investors, roughly <strong>70%<\/strong> plan to hold or increase Italian activity, prioritising <strong>living (30%)<\/strong>, <strong>industrial &amp; logistics (22%)<\/strong> and <strong>hotels (18%)<\/strong>, with data centres emerging on the AI build-out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>So what:<\/em> institutional money is rotating from traditional offices toward operational, income-producing assets \u2014 the defining move of this cycle, and a clear entry point for cross-border capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"REGULATION_%E2%80%94_Short_lets_the_two-property_perimeter_Italy\"><\/span>REGULATION \u2014 Short lets: the two-property perimeter (Italy)<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From 2026 the short-let regime reads on two levels: a <strong>cedolare secca<\/strong> (the flat-rate tax option on rental income) rate of <strong>21% on one property<\/strong> chosen on the tax return and <strong>26% on the second<\/strong>; <strong>beyond two apartments<\/strong> let short-term in the same tax period, the activity is <strong>presumed to be a business<\/strong>, with the resulting tax and administrative obligations to be checked case by case (Agenzia delle Entrate, <em>Short lets<\/em> guidance, April 2026; Law no. 199 of 30 December 2025, <em>Gazzetta Ufficiale<\/em> \u2014 the official legal gazette \u2014 no. 301, Ordinary Supplement no. 42). The <strong>CIN<\/strong> (Codice Identificativo Nazionale \u2014 the national ID code every short-let unit must display) stays mandatory regardless of the threshold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>So what:<\/em> one or two properties stay in the favourable flat-tax band; scaling beyond two enters the business perimeter, hitting net yield \u2014 the variable that rewrites short-let underwriting for foreign operators. <em>(Confirm with a commercialista \u2014 an Italian chartered accountant \u2014 for your case.)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sources &amp; dates<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Agenzia delle Entrate\u2013OMI<\/strong>, annual residential report, press release of 21 May 2026 (2025 data: 766,757 homes, +6.4%, ~\u20ac124bn; mortgage share 45.9%, capital \u20ac47.2bn, +18.3%); quarterly transaction statistics Q1 2026, press release of 10 June 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Banca d&#8217;Italia<\/strong>, <em>Money and Banking: national series<\/em>, April 2026 data (APRC 3.91% from 3.81%; household loans +2.6%).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>ECB<\/strong>, monetary policy decisions of 11 June 2026 (+25bps, effective 17 June; deposit 2.25%, main refinancing 2.40%, marginal lending 2.65%); <strong>12-month Euribor<\/strong>, EMMI \/ authorised vendor fixings, 5 June 2026 (2.842%) and 12 June 2026 (2.874%).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Nomisma<\/strong>, 1st Real Estate Market Observatory 2026 \u2014 rents +3.4%, gross rental yield 5.7%, total gross return 8.4%, time-to-let 1.6 months (Tier 2).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Tecnocasa research office<\/strong>, big-city rental yields \u2014 first-half 2025 data \/ published 2026 \u2014 65 m\u00b2 two-room flat ~5.8% gross, Genoa 7.5% (Tier 2).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>CBRE<\/strong>, Commercial Real Estate Italy Q1 2026 (\u20ac2.3bn, \u221221%; retail \u20ac687m, hotels \u20ac522m) and 2026 investor survey; 2025 full-year CRE ~\u20ac13.5bn (Tier 2).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Gazzetta Ufficiale<\/strong> no. 301 of 30 December 2025 (Ord. Suppl. no. 42) \u2014 Law no. 199 of 30 December 2025; <strong>Agenzia delle Entrate<\/strong>, <em>Short lets<\/em> guidance (April 2026); CIN under the Ministerial Decree of 6 June 2024.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>This is a newsletter, not personalised financial, legal or tax advice. For your situation, consult a qualified professional (commercialista, notaio, or avvocato). Ecosystem tools: VALE.IT (valuations), STACK.RE (data\/APIs); see our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.it\/glossario-immobiliare\/\">glossary<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.it\/en\/buying-guide\/\">buying guide<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From price gains to the hunt for yield: Italy&#8217;s cycle matures What matters today: 2025 closed with nearly 767,000 homes sold and a marked rebound in mortgage-financed purchases; Q1 2026 confirms demand, but with very different geographies. Mortgage credit was still priced below 4% in the April data, yet the ECB&#8217;s 11 June decision puts &#8230; <a title=\"Osservatorio \u00b7 Edition #2 \u00b7 EN \u00b7 17 June 2026\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.it\/en\/osservatorio-edition-2\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Osservatorio \u00b7 Edition #2 \u00b7 EN \u00b7 17 June 2026\">Read more&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":6598,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_import_markdown_pro_load_document_selector":0,"_import_markdown_pro_submit_text_textarea":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[261],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6640","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-osservatorio","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Osservatorio \u00b7 Edition #2 \u00b7 EN \u00b7 17 June 2026 &#8226; Real Estate<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.it\/en\/osservatorio-edition-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Osservatorio \u00b7 Edition #2 \u00b7 EN \u00b7 17 June 2026 &#8226; Real Estate\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From price gains to the hunt for yield: Italy&#8217;s cycle matures What matters today: 2025 closed with nearly 767,000 homes sold and a marked rebound in mortgage-financed purchases; Q1 2026 confirms demand, but with very different geographies. Mortgage credit was still priced below 4% in the April data, yet the ECB&#8217;s 11 June decision puts ... 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